Forecasting Cloud Cover Trends Over Iraq (A Study in Climate Geography)

Abstract

study aims to analyze cloud cover trends and predict cloud cover fractions (Okta) over Iraq for eight months, from October to May. The months of June, July, August, and September were excluded from the forecast due to minimal or absent cloud cover during this period.

The significance of cloud cover forecasting lies in its role as an indicator of atmospheric conditions. Many climatological studies emphasize the importance of clouds in understanding future climate changes, as clouds influence solar radiation absorption and reflection, thereby affecting the amount of solar energy reaching the Earth's surface.

To project future cloud cover trends for the period 2023–2037, this study relies on meteorological and climatic data collected from seven weather stations in Mosul, Kirkuk, Baghdad, Al-Hay, Rutba, Nasiriyah, and Basrah. The dataset spans the baseline years 1988–2022.

The study employs the Box-Jenkins (B-J) algorithm (1976), which involves:

1. Identifying an appropriate statistical model for the dataset.
2. Estimating the model parameters based on historical data.
3. Evaluating the model’s accuracy and suitability.
4. If the model is deemed appropriate, conducting future cloud cover forecasts.

The study applies the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model, denoted as (p, d, q) (P, D, Q), which is recognized as a seasonally adjusted time-series forecasting model