Israeli and Iranian Deterrence Strategies and Their Implications for the Middle East (2015–2025)

Abstract

Deterrence strategies form a central pillar in international relations, particularly in the Middle East, where security and political tensions continue to escalate. Israeli deterrence relies heavily on military power and advanced technology, bolstered by political and military support from key allies such as the United States and several European nations. Israel employs a "preemptive strike" strategy, evident in its operations against Iranian nuclear facilities and Iran-linked armed groups in Syria and Lebanon. Additionally, Israel uses its nuclear arsenal as a final deterrent, maintaining a policy of nuclear ambiguity.

Conversely, Iranian deterrence is built on a combination of conventional and unconventional military capabilities, including ballistic missiles and drone warfare, alongside the use of regional proxies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and armed groups in Iraq, Yemen, and Syria. Iran seeks to expand its regional influence to counter direct threats, with its nuclear program playing a pivotal role in its deterrence strategy.

This strategic rivalry between Israel and Iran has significant implications for the region, leading to prolonged crises, heightened sectarian and political tensions, and a regional arms race. Additionally, this competition attracts international involvement, whether through mediation efforts or direct intervention. The mutual distrust between the two sides further complicates any attempts to reach a long-term resolution.

In conclusion, the Israel-Iran strategic rivalry poses a major security challenge for the Middle East, with consequences that extend to regional and global stability.