Flood Risk Assessment of the Basins of the Darbishk Area Using the MARCOS Model

Abstract

This research aims to assess flood risks in the basins of the Darbishk area using the MARCOS model within a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) environment. The study relies on a set of natural criteria affecting hydrological behavior, such as rainfall and temperature, in addition to geomorphometric characteristics, including slope, stream order, and drainage density.

The study employed Digital Elevation Model (DEM) analysis to derive sub-basins and build a spatial database. It then applied the Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) approach through the stages of normalization, identification of the ideal and anti-ideal solutions, and calculation of the utility degree, ultimately ranking the basins according to their level of risk.

The results revealed spatial variation in flood risk, with high-risk areas associated with steep slopes and high drainage density, while risk levels decreased in flat areas. The study confirms the effectiveness of the MARCOS model as an accurate tool for supporting decision-making in flood risk management and water planning.